doomsday argument

doomsday argument an argument (associated chiefly with the mathematician Brandon Carter and the philosopher John Leslie) purporting to show, by appeal to Bayes’s theorem (and Bayes’s rule), that whatever antecedent probability we may have assigned to the hypothesis that human life will end relatively soon is magnified, perhaps greatly, upon our learning (or noticing) that we are among the first few score thousands of mil-

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