lions of human beings to exist See Leslie’s The. End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction (1996). The argument is based on an allegedly close analogy between the question of the probability of imminent human extinction given our ordinal location in the temporal swath of humanity and the fact that the reader’s name being among the first few drawn randomly from an urn may greatly enhance for the reader the probability that the urn contains fairly few names rather than very many. See also BAYESIAN RATIONALITY, BAYES’S THEOREM , PROBABILITY. D.A.J.